For a Moderate portfolio (60% stock/40% bond allocation) and an Aggressive portfolio (80% stock/20% bond allocation), the probability of a loss over 5-year rolling periods was 0% (same for the Conservative portfolio with a 30% stock/70% bond allocation). There was an 18% chance of a loss over one year for the Moderate and Aggressive portfolios, but usually that loss is less than 10%. The odds are pretty good that over the next 5-years, these portfolios will have positive results, and there is even more than an 80% chance that they will have positive results over the next 12-months. See illustration from Morningstar 2021 below.

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