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What’s in the American Rescue Plan?

What’s in the American Rescue Plan?

 

There’s a lot to unpack in the newly-passed, newly-signed American Rescue Plan bill. The goal is to help relieve the economic suffering caused by the COVID pandemic in various sectors. The bill makes unemployment benefits more generous, health insurance more affordable, and having children less expensive. It also reduces the pandemic’s most damaging effects on low-income homeowners and the homeless, people with student loans, state and local governments, and school systems.  

 

Most of the press coverage has focused on the $1,400 checks. Not everybody is receiving them. Only single people with an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or below (households with $150,000 AGI or below) qualify for the full amount. The amount phases out entirely for people with incomes above $80,000 (households with AGIs above $160,000). The reporting period is the most recent year that people filed taxes; it could be 2019 or 2020.

 

Unemployment and Cobra

 

The American Rescue Plan also extends unemployment benefits (either through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program or the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program) for an additional 25 weeks until September 6. It maintains the $300 per week supplemental benefit. It also makes the first $10,200 of those benefits tax-free for people who report less than $150,000 in income. The extra $300 federal supplement doesn’t count when calculating Medicaid eligibility and the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

 

The healthcare provisions will be a lifesaver for some ex-employees. Under the government provisions in COBRA, people who lost their jobs can continue buying health insurance through their former employer. Still, they pay full-price rather than the subsidized price companies offer to their workers. The new relief bill would have the government pay the entire COBRA premium from April 1 through September 30.

 

The bill will make health insurance much cheaper for those laid off than those who are still working. (This generous subsidy is not available for persons who left their job voluntarily.) Finally, the law imposes a cost cap on health insurance policies purchased through a government exchange. The premiums should not exceed 8.5% of a person’s adjusted gross income, which will benefit low-wage workers.

 

How the American Rescue Plan helps families

 

Families with children will receive additional benefits—but only families whose income qualifies them for the $1,400 checks. 

 

The bill raises the child tax credit from $2,000 to $3,000 ($3,600 for children ages five and under), and it increases the age limit for qualifying children to 17, from 16 previously. These amounts could apply as a tax refund even for people whose tax bill is zero; that is, those who don’t have any reportable income to offset. 

 

Families with incomes between $150,000 and $170,000 would receive the same $2,000 tax benefit as before, and that benefit phases out for married filers with incomes over $400,000 (singles above $200,000).

 

A bigger set-aside for families with children is a monthly child allowance. The government will send a monthly check of $300 for each child under six years old and $250 for each child between the ages of six and 17.

The American Rescue Plan sets aside $27 billion for financial assistance to people whose household income does not exceed 80% of the area’s median income to offset rent, utilities, and other housing expenses. 

The Rescue Plan sets aside $10 billion to help homeowners struggling to make mortgage payments and $5 billion to help the homeless.

Finally, if the Biden Administration decides to cancel student loan debt (which is not a given), the Act specifies that the borrowers wouldn’t have to pay any income taxes on the forgiven debt. 

The American Rescue Plan pie chart

You can see from the chart, with figures compiled by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, that there is also money set aside to keep restaurants and bars afloat and money to help schools better control the risk of infection so they can reopen. $350 billion is going to state and local governments to prevent layoffs and allow them to continue providing essential services

COVID Economic Projections (002)

The administration passed the American Rescue Plan as a stimulus measure, but we can better characterize it as disaster relief. A graph prepared by the Congressional Budget Office (shown here) clarifies that the U.S. economy was on a path to never quite recover from the COVID recession before this legislation passed. 

With the American Rescue Plan in place, the best estimate is that the economy might fully recover as early as the 4th quarter of this year.

 

 

Are you on track for retirement?

Making sure you will be ready for retirement can be overwhelming. Funding your retirement accounts over the years is a critical part of your journey to the retirement of your dreams. An experienced Financial Advisor can help you navigate the complexities of investment management. Talk to a Financial Advisor>

Dream. Plan. Do.

Platt Wealth Management offers financial plans to answer your important financial questions. Where are you? Where do you want to be? How can you get there? Our four-step financial planning process is designed to be a road map to get you where you want to go while providing flexibility to adapt to changes along the route. We offer stand alone plans or full wealth management plans that include our investment management services. Give us a call today to set up a complimentary review. 619-255-9554.

How Pent Up Demand Could Fuel Economic Recovery

How Pent Up Demand Could Fuel Economic Recovery

With major league baseball’s spring training just around the corner, you may already be daydreaming about the smell of cut grass and roasted peanuts, hearing the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd — just to feel normal again. 

 

If so, you are not alone — not among fellow Americans weary of the COVID pandemic nor within the context of history. This would not be the first time Americans have lived through a period of austerity brought on by a pandemic that resulted in burgeoning pent-up demand and economic recovery. In 1918, the Spanish Flu and World War I largely curtailed social gatherings and other activities across the country. 

 

To be sure, the U.S. was a very different place in the early 20th century, but consider that attendance at baseball stadiums in 1918 was half that of the previous year.

 

By 1919, however, the pandemic had largely subsided, the war was over and attendance at games soared from 2.8 million in 1918 to 6.5 million in 1919. The decade that followed — the Roaring ‘20s a time of exploding economic recovery— coincided with the first golden age of the automobile. Americans eager to see the countryside bought nearly 26 million cars and 3 million trucks in the 1920s, according to Automotive News.

 

Could pent-up demand for travel and leisure drive a Roaring ‘20s economic recovery today? 

 

Ready, willing — and able — to spend

 

Indeed, cabin fever appears to have taken hold of consumers everywhere. There are signs that Americans are prepared to act: Savings rates have soared since the start of the pandemic, and though they have slowed a bit in recent months they remain relatively high.

 

 

Many consumers have boosted their savings during the pandemic

Bar graph showing US Savings Rate 2020

 

Once the current situation subsides, the desire to travel plus the ability for consumers to spend means we could potentially see a powerful economic recovery.

 

The economic environment is much different than the global financial crisis of 2008.  Today, looser fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, strong banking infrastructure and a higher personal savings rate could drive a sharp pickup in demand.

 

These conditions not only can benefit the travel and leisure industries but also the broader economy. To be sure, there will probably be hiccups along the way, and some areas will likely recover more quickly than others.

 

 

Passenger loyalty: A tailwind for cruise lines toward economic recovery

 

Cruise ships became the epicenter of the COVID crisis in February 2020, when 3,700 people were quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess after a shipboard outbreak. At the time, the ship accounted for half of all known cases outside mainland China.

 

Over the past year, this industry has gotten so much negative media, yet people are still booking cruises for 2021 and 2022. 

 

In fact, more than 70% of respondents to an industry survey said they will cruise again.

 

Loyal customers can keep cruise industry afloat

 

While cruising has resumed in Europe, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control imposed a “no sail” order that has not yet been lifted in North America.

 

There is still uncertainty as to when ships will set sail again, but there is a possibility that they will be cruising near full capacity quicker than many people expect.

 

What’s more, with intense focus on healthy sailing practices, there’s a case to be made that they could one day be considered among the cleanest places on earth to vacation.

 

Vacation plans up in the air

 

As was the case in the cruise industry, global air travel was down an estimated 66% in 2020, about 20 times worse than the previous record. Within the U.S., which is more dependent on business travel, the devastation was worse: Air travel declined as much as 95% in the early months of the crisis.

 

The rollout of the vaccines and, prior historical events, leads to increased confidence that demand will bounce back. For example, we also saw this after the September 11 attacks. A lot of people thought consumers would never fly again, and traffic recovered quickly.

 

Indeed, in China, where the virus is largely under control and the economy has rebounded, domestic air travel has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels.

 

Air travel in China has soared back. Will the U.S. soon follow with it’s own economic recovery?

The ripple effect for economic recovery waves

 

A revival in travel demand can also have a powerful ripple effect, creating the need for a range of goods and services and helping drive job growth across a variety of industries. Among these are aircraft manufacturers, jet engine makers, hotels, casinos and restaurants — all of which were devastated by the pandemic.

 

Consider aircraft engine makers, which operate a recurring revenue business model. Companies like Safran and General Electric build the engines and sell them at a modest profit, but the engines must be serviced regularly, and the engine makers can generate a great deal of revenue from the service contracts.

 

Unlike other sectors of the economy during COVID, aircraft engine makers are not going to see digital disruption upend their business. After all, there are no digital aircraft engines. 

 

Markets tend to anticipate recoveries

 

Markets often anticipate recoveries in the underlying economy, so it’s important to recognize underlying trends early. Consider the global financial crisis, a period when the housing and automobile industries were severely beaten down. By 2012 it became clear that demand was building, thanks to changing demographics and an aging auto fleet. In both industries, a full recovery took several more years, but a rebound in auto- and housing-related stocks anticipated the recovery in demand and earnings. From February 2009 through December 2010, auto sales fell 6% while auto stock returns advanced 496%.

 

 

Auto stocks rebounded ahead of sales after the global financial crisis

More recently, since the introduction of the vaccines, shares of companies across a number of travel-related industries have registered strong gains.

 

 

 

The market often reflects a recovery in earnings before they materialize.  In a year from now, we could be in a very different environment where demand and earnings for some of these companies begin to recover in a more meaningful and sustained way.

 

 

 

Maintaining a balance

 

 

 

Students of history can look to many examples of past crises and declines that were followed by powerful economic recoveries thanks in part to pent-up consumer demand. Examples include the travel sector after 9/11 and the housing and auto industries following the end of the great financial crisis in 2008–2009. 

 

 

 

For investors and their advisors, it is important to make sure portfolios are balanced with exposure not only to growth strategies but also to strategies focused on more value-oriented companies, like many of the travel-related stocks.

 

 

 

A review of more than 4,000 portfolios by Capital Group found that investors significantly reduced allocations to value equities over the last three years. It may be time to rebalance. 

 

 

 

Returns for leading growth companies have continued to be strong, for good reason. But it may be shortsighted for investors to become seduced by the runaway growth stories, considering that many of the beaten down stocks in travel and other sectors have attractive valuations. And recently there have been some early signs that the market rally may be broadening as many of these stocks have posted meaningful gains.

 

Investors have scaled back their exposure to value funds

 

We just experienced a market downturn and recovery where the growth-oriented companies led during the decline and on the way back up.  Historically, that is an unusual pattern.  As the vaccines roll out and the recovery broadens we may begin to see companies in the travel industry, or perhaps energy or financials, all of which had been very hard hit during the downturn, participate in the recovery.

 

 

 

 

Are you on track for retirement?

 

Making sure you will be ready for retirement can be overwhelming. Funding your retirement accounts over the years is a critical part of your journey to the retirement of your dreams. An experienced Financial Advisor can help you navigate the complexities of investment management. Talk to a Financial Advisor>

Dream. Plan. Do.

Platt Wealth Management offers financial plans to answer your important financial questions. Where are you? Where do you want to be? How can you get there? Our four-step financial planning process is designed to be a road map to get you where you want to go while providing flexibility to adapt to changes along the route. We offer stand alone plans or full wealth management plans that include our investment management services. Give us a call today to set up a complimentary review. 619-255-9554.

How the Latest Relief Packages Affects AGI’s, RMD’s, Deductions

How the Latest Relief Packages Affects AGI’s, RMD’s, Deductions

The U.S. Congress recently passed, and the President signed, the 5,593-page Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021 relief package—and experts are still mulling over what the impact will be on ordinary citizens. There are stimulus checks, tax planning relief provisions, and a break for people who experience high medical expenses during the pandemic.

 

There’s even a new paycheck protection program extension.

 

New AGI and tax considerations in latest relief package

 

First, the new legislation provides for stimulus checks, with a “base” credit of $600 per eligible individual plus $600 more for any dependent child (technically, any children qualifying for a Child Tax Credit). But, as with the CARES Act, eligibility starts phasing out for individuals earning more than $75,000 of adjusted gross income or joint filers with over $150,000 AGI.

These phaseouts, based on the 2019 tax return, seem unfair. The economic hardships the bill was designed to address took place in the final three quarters of 2020. But if the taxpayer’s 2020 income calculation indicates a larger check amount, the government will issue an additional check to make up the difference. If someone receives a stimulus check based on 2019 income and then reports higher 2020 income, that would make that person ineligible to receive the check. There will be no requirement to pay the money back to the government.

The new legislation also extends regular unemployment compensation benefits for an additional 11 weeks and adds $300 a week to the unemployment checks. This “pandemic unemployment assistance” for individuals who wouldn’t usually qualify for unemployment benefits (such as self-employed persons) was also extended for 11 more weeks. Note that the $300 a week and 11 weeks is lower than the $600 a week and four-month extension passed in the CARES Act.

 

Medical and charity deductions in the new relief package

 

On the tax front, the hurdle for deducting medical expenses in any given year was reduced from 10% to 7.5%, meaning that anything over that percentage of adjusted gross income would now be deductible on your next tax return. And the bill extends a provision from the CARES Act relating to charitable deductions.

People can take a full deduction of up to 100% of their AGI for any cash donation to a public or private charity (but not a donor-advised fund).

In the bill, Congress did not extend the temporary waiver of required minimum distributions, which means that people over age 72 will have to resume taking their RMDs in 2021.

What else can we find in those 5,593 pages?

 

Taxpayers will use their 2019 earned income to determine eligibility for the 2020 earned income tax credit and additional child tax credit.

Business lunches and dinners have become 100% deductible for 2021 and 2022.
And the bill creates a second round of the Paycheck Protection Program forgivable loans, with $284 billion set aside.

Finally, the bill provides funding for the federal government’s operations for another nine months.

 

 

Are you on track for retirement?

Making sure you will be ready for retirement can be overwhelming. Funding your retirement accounts over the years is a critical part of your journey to the retirement of your dreams. An experienced Financial Advisor can help you navigate the complexities of investment management. Talk to a Financial Advisor>

Dream. Plan. Do.

Platt Wealth Management offers financial plans to answer your important financial questions. Where are you? Where do you want to be? How can you get there? Our four-step financial planning process is designed to be a road map to get you where you want to go while providing flexibility to adapt to changes along the route. We offer stand alone plans or full wealth management plans that include our investment management services. Give us a call today to set up a complimentary review. 619-255-9554.

GameStop Gambling

GameStop Gambling

GameStop: A David and Goliath story or a cautionary tale of feverish gambling?

The GameStop David and Goliath story has given us a short break from 2020 doom and gloom. It’s a surprising story of how masses of small amateur investors managed to bid the share prices of three largely-unprofitable companies—GameStop, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and Blackberry—up nearly 1,000 percent, collectively. GameStop alone rose more than 14,300%—a record for a firm whose market share is eroding and which most analysts think is clinging to an outmoded business model. (The company sells video games through bricks-and-mortar retail outlets competing in a streaming internet world.)

The story was allegedly about David (the small investors) pitted against Goliath (several prominent multi-billion-dollar hedge funds). The only reason you heard about it is that the small investors won and nearly put the hedge funds out of business.

The GameStop short squeeze: a pessimistic gamble

Market professionals recognize the story as a classic short squeeze. Investors on one side (in this case, the hedge funds) borrow the stock of companies they think are overpriced, expecting to buy them at a discount after the price falls. They pocket a quick profit. These short sales have an expiration date, so if the stocks unexpectedly rise in price, the short-sellers have to scramble to buy the stock at the inflated price to limit their losses.

On the other side of the gaming table were a group of amateur investors who engage in online conversations on subreddit r/wallstreetbets, who ganged up to raise each others’ bids. When the hedge funds had to buy to close out their positions, the share prices went through the roof. The hedge funds, meanwhile, lost an estimated $5 billion on their bets. Roughly $1.6 billion on January 29, when GameStop’s stock jumped 51%.

The financial media neglected to mention that this activity is not investing; instead, it is a form of gambling, and the story tells us a great deal about the mindset of many retail investors these days.

When their goal is to make bets and destroy other gamblers at the table, the game for everybody else becomes increasingly dangerous. Take a look at the past six months of GameStop’s stock price and see if you can pinpoint when the gamblers started taking an interest.

GameStoppers take note: the gambler always loses

 

Toward the end of every bull market cycle, there is an invisible line crossed. The public starts to look at the stock market, not as participation in the growth and profits of public enterprises, but as a roulette wheel where the ball keeps stopping at a higher price. These shareowners cease to be long-term investors and bid prices up- not based on the underlying value of the companies- but on the expectation that whatever you buy, at whatever price, someone else will come along and pay even more.

Of course, markets only work that way for a short time, typically at or around market tops. Eventually, the share prices of GameStop, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and Blackberry will return to something that more closely resembles the real value of the actual company. Long-term investors have tended to win the kitty over every past historical time period. Gamblers have seen their short-term winnings evaporate in the ensuing bear market. The jubilant traders on subreddit r/wallstreetbets can enjoy their winnings today, but it may not be long before they’re counting their losses and wishing they hadn’t gambled away the money they could’ve used to buy shares when they finally go on sale.

 

 

Are you on track for retirement?

Making sure you will be ready for retirement can be overwhelming. Funding your retirement accounts over the years is a critical part of your journey to the retirement of your dreams. An experienced Financial Advisor can help you navigate the complexities of investment management. Talk to a Financial Advisor>

Dream. Plan. Do.

Platt Wealth Management offers financial plans to answer your important financial questions. Where are you? Where do you want to be? How can you get there? Our four-step financial planning process is designed to be a road map to get you where you want to go while providing flexibility to adapt to changes along the route. We offer stand alone plans or full wealth management plans that include our investment management services. Give us a call today to set up a complimentary review. 619-255-9554.

Creative SALT Workarounds

Creative SALT Workarounds

One of the most hated tax provisions for people in higher-tax states is the so-called SALT limitation on state and local taxes. 

 

 

What is the SALT Limitation?

 

The provision was part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which only allows taxpayers who itemize their deductions to deduct a maximum of $10,000 on their federally taxed income for local property, sales, and income taxes paid to state and local governments. The limitation is especially punitive to joint tax filers because the $10,000 limit is the same for single and joint tax returns. 

If spouses file separately, each can only deduct $5,000 each of these local tax obligations.

 

Creative SALT Workarounds

 

Several states have proposed creative workarounds for this limitation. One possibly includes allowing state tax obligations to be paid as a charitable contribution, which would make them more likely to be deductible. The IRS publicly frowned on the charitable workaround. So, some states—Louisiana, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Maryland, and Connecticut—managed to find a different structure—and surprisingly, it looks like the IRS is going to go along.

The workaround only works for individual owners of pass-through businesses like a partnership or S corporation. The idea is that the company—not the individual taxpayer—could pay the SALT taxes. Then, they can take a deduction for these expenditures at the business level. The value of the deduction would pass through to the individual business owners.  

 

The Future of SALT Workarounds

 

Would that be legal? On November 9, the IRS released Notice 2020-75, which agreed that pass-through businesses could claim deductions at the business level for state and local income tax paid. There were state laws that would shift the tax burden from individual owners to the business entity. You can look for more states to follow the lead of the pioneering jurisdictions and for taxpayers to set up side businesses as a way to get all or part of this valuable deduction.

If you’d like to speak with a financial advisor, please give us a call at 619.255.9554 or email us to set up an appointment.

 

Paycheck Protection Program Update

Paycheck Protection Program Update

The U.S. government has extended The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Here’s a brief overview of what you need to know.

 

Paycheck Program Basics

 

Authorized by the CARES Act and administered by the Small Business Administration, the PPP helps employers cover the cost of their payroll so more people can remain employed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The new deadline to apply is August 8, 2020, with applications reopened on July 6.

Eligible companies have fewer than 500 employees, or meet a revenue-based size standard for their industry, or have a tangible net worth of $15 million or less AND the average net income (excluding carry-forward losses) for the preceding two years was $5 million or less. 

Independent contractors and sole proprietors are eligible. Seasonal businesses are as well, as long as they were either operating on 2/15/20 or in 8 weeks from 2/15/19 to 6/30/19. And therefore would be presumed to have done the same in 2020, absent the coronavirus.

PPP comes in the form of a loan, which may be forgiven as long as the employer meets specific criteria. Loans are offered through existing SBA lenders and additional participating institutions such as banks, credit unions, and Farm Credit Systems. 

Loans of up to $10 million are available, and businesses must spend the funds by the end of this calendar year.

If you’re interested in applying, click here for the SBA page on PPP.

Paycheck Protection Program Eligibility

 

For lenders to forgive the loan, businesses must spend at least 60% of it on payroll. Other costs that you can use the money to cover include mortgage interest, rent, and utilities. It’s available for the first 24 weeks of these costs.
The new loans will have a 5-year maturity. Those issued before 6/5/20 have a 2-year maturity. The interest rate is 1%, and you can defer payments for six months.
You don’t need collateral or guarantors for the loan. Neither the government nor the banks charge additional fees for small businesses.

 

Details on Paycheck Protection Program Forgiveness

You’ll need to submit an application to the lender to request loan forgiveness. In addition, you must meet the following criteria.

  • The 24-week timeframe

Fortunately, since not all payroll cycles sync up with the first day of loan disbursement, the SBA has an alternative payroll covered period. It begins on the first day of the pay period after the loan has been disbursed.

 

However, payments outside this timeframe are not eligible for loan forgiveness.

 

  • Payment of payroll (not just payroll incurred)

The business needs to pay their employees from the loan to be eligible for forgiveness, not just incur the payroll costs. Payments incurred during the last two weeks of the 24-week timeframe must be paid no later than the next pay period to qualify for forgiveness.

 

As a reminder, 60% of the loan proceeds must be used for payroll expenses in order for the loan to be forgiven. Sick leave and family leave costs are included in payroll. Payments to independent contractors and sole proprietors are excluded from payroll, as they can apply for PPP themselves.

 

  • Payment of non-payroll costs

Similarly, these types of expenses must be incurred and paid during the 24-week timeframe in order to be eligible for forgiveness. If they are incurred inside the timeframe but not paid until later, they must be paid no later than the next billing date to qualify.

 

The SBA has made clear that it will not forgive advance payments of mortgage interest, but as of yet has made no statement regarding such payments for rent or utilities. Double tax breaks are not allowed.

 

  • Continuation of the same number of full time equivalent (FTE) employees

Since the CARES Act did not define what a FTE is, the SBA ruled that it’s an employee who works an average of at least 40 hours per week. The loan forgiveness will be reduced, but not necessarily eliminated, if the employer doesn’t follow the rule of having the same number of FTEs during the 24-week period as it had at the beginning.

 

For part-time employees, the employer can choose one of two methods of calculating their FTE.  They must apply this method to all employees.

 

One is to calculate their average number of hours worked during the 24 weeks and divide by 40. The other is to assume that all part-timers who worked less than 40 hours on average is 0.5 FTE.

 

  • Allowable exceptions to the FTE rule

There are several exceptions to the maintenance of FTEs that will not reduce the loan forgiveness.

 

If an employee voluntarily resigns or asks to reduce hours, or if they’re fired for cause, the FTE reduction rule does not apply.

 

If the employer reduced FTE between February 15 and April 26 of this year, but restores the FTE before the end of the year, that temporary reduction doesn’t count against them.

 

Another exemption is based on employee availability and must be documented by the employer to avoid a reduction in forgiveness on the PPP loan. One factor is if the employer is unable to rehire former employees who are qualified or hire qualified ones for unfilled positions by 12/31/20.

 

The other is if the business can’t return to its activity level as measured on 2/15/20 due to guidance from OSHA, CDC, or HHS during the period from 3/1/20 to 12/31/20.

 

  • Maintaining same rate of pay for salaries and wages

A reduction in salaries and wages of 25% or more results in a loan forgiveness reduction.

 

However, if that reduction occurred between February 15 and April 26 of this year and pay was restored to its previous levels by the end of the year, there is no forgiveness reduction.

 

  • Eligibility of bonus and hazard pay

The CARES Act includes salary, wages, commissions and similar compensation in its definition of “payroll costs”. Therefore, hazard payments and bonuses (as supplements to wages) are eligible for loan forgiveness as long as the employee’s total compensation is equal to or less than $100,000 annually.

 

The $100,000 limit on employee compensation is limited to “cash” compensation and does not include benefits such as employer retirement contributions.

 

  • Retain loan documents for six years

After the loan is either paid in full or forgiven, the SBA retains the right to examine the loan documents for the following six years.

 

If you’d like to discuss your business finances, give us a call at 619.255.9554 or send us an email. We’d love to hear from you.

 

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