Markets: First Negative Quarter of 2023

After three consecutive quarters of positive returns the S&P 500 index fell -3.27% in Q3. The index, however, still had positive double digit returns of 13.07% for the first nine months of 2023. The stocks frequently referred to as “The Magnificent Seven,” Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla accounted for approximately 85% of the gain. Without the “Seven” mega-cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 would be up less than 2% for the first three quarters of this year.

Small cap growth stocks also outpaced their small cap value brethren this year. The Russell 2000 Growth Index was up 5.24% while the Russell 2000 Value Index declined -0.53% since the start of the year. In Q3, the Russell 2000 Growth Index dropped -7.32% while the Russell 2000 Value Index was negative by -2.96%.

International markets were negative, too, in Q3. The MSCI EAFE international index declined -4.71% in the quarter, but it is up 4.49% through the first three quarters of 2023. The Fed raised rates 4 times in 2023. As a result, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index was down -1.21% for the first 9 months of 2023.

 

The Fed: Pause Amid “Higher for Longer” Narrative

 

Remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell of “higher for longer” rates sent bond traders scurrying. Bond yields first dropped in anticipation of a slowing economy, but yields then rose as inflation numbers of 3.7% were reported. The Fed left rates unchanged, however, at its September meeting, with a current range of 5.25% to 5.5%. At the end of the quarter it was nearly an even bet that there would be one more rate increase before the end of the year. In just the past few weeks the likelihood of another increase has decreased to less than a one-in-three chance according to interest-rate futures pricing. The Fed also projected two rate cuts in 2024, but this is much less than the previous 4 cuts it anticipated at its June meeting

 

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Inflation: Resilient, Too

 

We continue to believe that the easy part of dampening inflation has occurred. Inflation has gone from 9.1% in June of 2022 to 3.7% in September of 2023, but unchanged from the previous month. The Fed target of a 2% inflation rate is now projected for 2025.

Short-term, risk-free treasuries continue to yield over 5%. This is enticing for both fixed-income investors and equity investors who are concerned with stock market volatility. As we’ve stated previously, long-term investors who build and maintain portfolio asset allocations appropriate for their time horizon and risk tolerance may still come out ahead in the long-run.

 

WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

The New Year provides many great opportunities to get a financial plan in place or reevaluate your risk profile. The Platt Wealth Management team is here for you to discuss any changes or new milestones in your life. We are always available to assist you with any financial matters and we look forward to continue to serve you along your financial journey.

Warmest regards,
Platt Wealth Management

The Market

It was mostly steady gains on Wall Street last quarter, with record highs achieved by the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The S&P 500 was up just over 15% mid-year. The DJIA was up, too, although it lagged behind the other growth-oriented indices. The Dow was able to breakthrough the 40,000 level before closing just above 39,000, while the S&P 500 marked the longest streak without a daily 2% drop since the Great Recession.

Nvidia became the largest company by market capitalization in the S&P 500 Index, surpassing Apple. The “Magnificent 7,” which includes Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), and Tesla, collectively dominate the index more than ever before.

 

Government data shows that consumer inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, peaked year-over-year in June of 2022 at 9.1% and declined steadily throughout 2023. However, it may not feel like it when you purchase goods and services. “Stuff” is still expensive, with service pricing and housing pricing remaining stubborn.

Meanwhile, strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and low unemployment have contributed to the belief that the Fed is orchestrating a soft landing and sidestepping a recession.

These seven companies constitute a substantial portion of the S&P 500’s total market value, reflecting the increasing concentration of market power within the tech sector. As of 2024, these tech giants collectively comprise approximately 25% to 30% of the S&P 500, underscoring their outsized influence on the broader market.

The dominance of these tech behemoths has led to a significant skew in the S&P 500’s composition. With technology and tech-adjacent companies holding such a large share, the index’s performance has become heavily reliant on their fortunes. The Magnificent 7 are now often found within almost all large-cap growth and blend mutual funds and ETFs.

To offset this, we are adding to value-oriented positions, while limiting the addition of growth and tech funds so our portfolios are not overexposed to undue market risks. Strategically, we are “buying straw hats in winter.” From a historical basis, value stocks are cheaper than growth stocks. The Russell 1000 Value Index has a forward P/E of 15.3 compared to its long-term average (since 1997) of 14.1. Meanwhile, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has a forward P/E of 28.4 compared to its long-term average of 21.0.

 

Inflation: Some Good News, But Not Good Enough

 

US Core Inflation was 3.42% at the end of May. This is down from 3.61% the previous month, lower than the end-of-the-year rate of 3.93%, and well below the rate for May a year ago of 6.02%. However, this is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it may consider gradually lowering interest rates if inflation shows sustained signs of abating and economic conditions stabilize. They are walking a tightrope to slow economic growth enough that inflation will cool down but not too much that the economy will fall into a recession.

 

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3838 Camino del Rio North
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WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

The New Year provides many great opportunities to get a financial plan in place or reevaluate your risk profile. The Platt Wealth Management team is here for you to discuss any changes or new milestones in your life. We are always available to assist you with any financial matters and we look forward to continue to serve you along your financial journey.

Warmest regards,
Platt Wealth Management

The Fed and Interest Rates

 

As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged at the last policy meeting. According to Fed Chairman Powell, the Fed will continue to seek confirmation that inflation readings are moving toward the 2% Fed target. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index was 0.4 percent in February and 3.2 percent over the past year. Core inflation, which leaves out volatile food and energy prices was also 0.4 percent for the month and 3.8 percent over the last year. While the trend is downward, inflation continues well above the target rate, thus leaving the Fed maintaining the current federal funds rate.

 

The Labor Market

 

The good news for the economy is that March employment data showed larger than expected job growth. Non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000, 50% more than the anticipated 200,000. As a result, unemployment fell to 3.8% from 3.9% previously and GDP grew by 2.5% in Q1. This is another factor underscoring why the Fed is not in a position to cut rates too soon.

 

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There are only six Fed policy meetings left in 2024, so these projected rate cuts would have to start happening soon. The Fed meets again in May with another in June. A rate cut in May is off the table given the recent jobs report. The question is whether upcoming inflation data will cooperate and enable the Fed to initiate rate cuts.
At the end of last week, probabilities favored the first Fed rate cut occurring at the June Fed meeting, with a 75.6% probability, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

 

The Magnificent Seven

 

At In 2023 the Magnificent Seven, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, as a group grew over 100% in 2023, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index which rose 24%. These stocks had gains ranging from nearly 50% to well over 200%!

In movies the western genre has long since passed and comic book super heroes are the current standard bearer. So too with stocks, as the Magnificent Seven is no more and the latest and greatest is now the Fantastic Five. Dropping out of the group were Apple and Tesla, with declines of nearly 11% and almost 30%, respectively in Q1. The Fantastic Five were all positive, with four of them notching double digit gains just in the first quarter.

This meteoric rise in their valuations has pushed the concentration of the top ten stocks in S&P 500 to a 50-year high of 32%, as reported by JPMorgan. This concentration risk gives rise to quicker and deeper downward movements in the market should there be a reversal in momentum for these stocks.

WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

The New Year provides many great opportunities to get a financial plan in place or reevaluate your risk profile. The Platt Wealth Management team is here for you to discuss any changes or new milestones in your life. We are always available to assist you with any financial matters and we look forward to continue to serve you along your financial journey.

Warmest regards,
Platt Wealth Management

Markets Continue to be Resilient

For the third consecutive quarter stocks posted positive returns. The S&P 500 index was up 8.7% in Q2 and 16.9% in the first six months of the year. Market breadth is a concern, however, as the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for over 95% of the index’s gains in the first half of the year.

Style divergence continued this past quarter. The Russell 1000 Growth index was up 12.8% in Q2 compared to a 4% gain for the Russell 1000 Value index. For the first half of the year their returns were 29% and 5.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the small-cap index, the Russell 2000, posted a gain of 5.2% this past quarter and 8.1% through the first two quarters of 2023. Foreign markets were positive, too, although they lagged the S&P 500. The MSCI EAFE international index gained 3.2% in Q2 and is up 12.1% through the first half of the year. Emerging markets, as represented by the EAFE EM index, gained just over 1% in Q2 and 5.1% since the beginning of the year.

 

The Fed: Too Fast, Too Slow or Just Right?

 

For nearly the past one and a half years the Fed has raised rates ten times with four ¼ point increases, two ½ point increases and four ¾ point increases as they battle inflation. Inflation peaked in June of 2022 at 9.06%. It has declined in every month since then with an end of June rate of 3%, which is still above the Fed’s target of 2%. At the June meeting the Fed paused further rate increases but indicated two more increases are likely before the end of the year. The Fed continues to balance its efforts to control inflation without disrupting the US economy.

 

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GDP growth went from 2.6% in Q4 2022 to a revised 2.0% in Q1 2023. This suggests the Fed’s rate hikes are cooling the economy and assisting in bringing down the rate of inflation. Unemployment, though, dropped 0.1% to 3.6%.

Increased rates and higher borrowing costs should slow the economy, eventually getting inflation down to the Fed target. The easier part of this task is completed, moving from slightly over 9% to a little over 3%. Moving from a 3% inflation rate to a 2% inflation rate will be more difficult. Positive job growth, although slowing, along with wages increasing, and a very low unemployment rate, will likely force the Fed to continue with rate increases.

Earnings season is upon us. Wall Street projects a 5% decline in earnings for the companies in the S&P 500. If these expectations are accurate a 10% correction would not come as a surprise. Short-term, risk-free treasuries are yielding over 5%. This is very tempting, not only for fixed-income investors, but for equity investors who are concerned with stock market volatility. They may believe the generous treasury numbers and an adjusted risk/reward ratio does not warrant additional equity exposure. However, long-term investors who build and maintain portfolio asset allocations appropriate for their time horizon and risk tolerance may still come out ahead in the long-run.

 

WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

The New Year provides many great opportunities to get a financial plan in place or reevaluate your risk profile. The Platt Wealth Management team is here for you to discuss any changes or new milestones in your life. We are always available to assist you with any financial matters and we look forward to continue to serve you along your financial journey.

Warmest regards,
Platt Wealth Management

Gains Soothe Recession Worries

We have now experienced two consecutive quarters of healthy market gains, and the long-predicted recession has not materialized despite the Fed continuing to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 index was up 7.5% in Q1. There was quite a style divergence, however, as the Russell 1000 Growth index was up 14.4% and the Russell 1000 Value index managed a gain of just over 1%. Meanwhile, the small cap index, the Russell 2000, posted a gain of just over 2.7%.

Foreign markets moved in lock-step with the U.S. The broad-based MSCI EAFE international index gained 7.7% in Q1. Emerging markets, as represented by the EAFE EM index, gained just over 3.5%.

 

 

Bonds: An Inverted Yield Curve

 

Bond rates rose dramatically last year, but that trend has moderated. The 30-year U.S. government bond yield is down from 3.96% at the end of last year to 3.65% currently, with the 10-year yielding 3.47%. Interestingly, 5-year government securities are yielding a higher 3.57% and 2-year Treasuries are yielding 4.03%, with 1-year issues yielding 4.59%. When short term rates are higher than longer term rates, particularly the 2-year compared to the 10-year note, this is called a yield curve inversion. An inverted yield curve is often a harbinger of a recession, as all modern-day recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. However, not all inverted yield curves have led to recessions.

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Of course, the recession of 2023 was previously predicted for 2021 and then pushed back to 2022. As it is often said, “An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”
The Fed recently released a report examining the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). In the report the Fed announced its mea culpa for the collapse of the bank citing its own lax oversight along with loosening regulations and poor management by SVB. While its candor is rare and much appreciated, it does not raise our confidence that it can orchestrate its projected soft landing. This is especially true as the Fed has prioritized fighting inflation at the expense of the economy.

 

The Economy Moves Forward

 

Even after all the rate hikes, the economy moves forward, albeit at a slower pace. GDP growth went from 2.6% in Q4 2022 to 1.1% in Q1 2023. Yet, unemployment remains at 3.5%, a number that does not assist in cooling the economy and bringing down the rate of inflation. Yes, inflation has slowed somewhat, from a peak of 9.1% to 5.4% over the past year, but it’s still well above the 2% target rate of the Fed. Increased rates and higher borrowing costs will slow the economy, eventually getting inflation down to the Feds target. It’s just taking longer than the Fed wants.

The future is always unknown, and the view ahead is unusually cloudy. Even so, the past two quarters may contain a hidden lesson. Taking actions based on market forecasts and recession predictions, particularly jumping in and out of markets, would have caused an investor to miss two quarters of healthy returns. Long-term investors who build and maintain portfolio asset allocations appropriate for their time horizon and risk tolerance come out ahead in the long-run.

 

 

WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

The New Year provides many great opportunities to get a financial plan in place or reevaluate your risk profile. The Platt Wealth Management team is here for you to discuss any changes or new milestones in your life. We are always available to assist you with any financial matters and we look forward to continue to serve you along your financial journey.

Warmest regards,
Platt Wealth Management

2022: YEAR OF THE BLACK SWAN

The new lunar year is the Year of the Rabbit and 2022 was the Year of the Tiger. For investors, however, 2022 was the Year of
the Black Swan. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, fell 18.1% and the bond market, as measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, was down 13%.

The last time both stocks and bonds decreased in the same calendar year was 1969. The last time they both experienced double digit declines was 1931 during the Great Depression. Global diversification did not provide any ballast as developed international and emerging markets also suffered double digit loses. In 2022 the viciousness of the Tiger transformed into a Black Swan – a rare and unexpected outlier event.

2022: YEAR OF THE BLACK SWAN

The Fed is attempting to bring inflation down to a 2% annual rate. They likely need to get there by raising

the Fed funds rate to at least 5% and the Fed has already indicated rates could stay there or go higher in 2023, and also 2024. However, bond market expectations are primed for rates to top out at 4.75%- 5.00%, up from the current 4.25%-4.50%. As we’ve seen through the past few quarters, raising the federal funds rate makes new short-term bonds competitive with stocks and reduces demand for equities

The Fed believes the worst of inflation is past us. To be sure of this, they will keep raising rates and see how the economy reacts.In December, CPI was down to 6.5% on an annual basis, compared to 7.1% in November and a 9.1% peak in June 2022. However, the Fed has made it very clear that they will prioritize curbing inflation over growth in the markets.

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The beginning of the year saw layoffs announced by many companies: Amazon 18,000, Google 12,000, Microsoft 10,000, Salesforce 7,000, which is 10% of its workforce, and Goldman Sachs is laying off 3,200, about 7% of its employees, its largest reduction since the Great Recession. These layoffs and a slowing real estate market, as a result of mortgage rates exceeding 6%, do not bode well for the economy. While we prefer the Fed execute a soft landing our expectations are for a rougher and bumpier landing, but a landing nonetheless and not a crash. As a result, we will keep a short-leash on asset allocations and re-balance more often in 2023. Additionally, we will rotate equity allocations into consumer staples and healthcare, sectors of the economy where spending will not be reduced as they are necessities, not sectors of discretionary spending. Another area of increased equity allocation will be dividend paying stocks with a focus not just on current yields, but rather growth in dividend payments. In the fixed income arena, we continue to add to short- and intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries and government agencies for both safety and generous yields of 4.5% to 5%.

WE ARE HERE FOR YOU

The New Year provides many great opportunities to get a financial plan in place or reevaluate your risk profile. The Platt Wealth Management team is here for you to discuss any changes or new milestones in your life. We are always available to assist you with any financial matters and we look forward to continue to serve you along your financial journey.

Warmest regards,
Platt Wealth Management